A Summer Of Disconnect - Sunday Roundup, August 13 2023

Has the economy arrived at a soft landing after all? The equity market (and inflation data) certainly seem to think so, but not everyone is convinced. Positive economic data tend to move stock markets, either by fueling rallies, or prompting a temporary selloff. So this week’s lackluster reaction to cheering U.S. inflation figures looks unusual. JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic said a soft landing doesn’t look as probable as some investors might think. And he isn’t alone, as financial conditions deteriorate, another veteran investor reckons a dramatic stock market crash might be on the horizon. The reality is that nobody really knows for sure*. But that doesn’t stop some investors from speculating.