​Talton Capital: Fundamentally Forecasting Equity Volatility

The most common methods of predicting equity volatility are based on time series analysis of the realized volatility and the CBOE Volatility Index futures curve. Both of these are currently suggesting a continuing low volatility environment. But the political situation has just changed drastically and, whether this is for better or worse, it seems likely that there will be an effect on the equity markets as the broad economy adjusts. Is there anything we can quantitatively deduce from this change? In short, can we make sensible, quantitative predictions of volatility based on fundamental economic variables?